For a while, it seemed as if the bubble would never burst. From the start of the pandemic and, especially, over the past eight months, resale prices on the most collectible modern 1:1 UK Rolex replica watches kept rising. Now, perhaps inevitably, the run-up appears to have come to an end.
“All the models that were pumped up, overly hyped—those are the ones that have softened the most,” Paul Altieri, founder of Bob’s Watches, an online dealer specializing in pre-owned high quality Rolex fake watches, tells Robb Report. “If a watch was $10,000 in October and went to $15,000 by May, the fact that they’re back to $11,000 or $12,000, that’s where it should have been.”
Altieri says the softening, which he attributed to the poor sentiment sparked by declines in the stock market, is epitomized by the best replica Rolex Cosmograph Daytona Ref. 116500 watches. Introduced in 2016, the model, which retails for $14,550, was valued as high as $50,000 on secondary channels as recently as May.
“Now it’s down to about $42,000 to $44,000,” Altieri says. “That’s the one that’s had the most movement.”
But over the past month, prices on other coveted Rolex steel models have also weakened. Notably, the perfect Rolex Oyster Perpetual fake watches bearing colorful dials, introduced in September 2020 at a retail price of $5,600, saw values peak around $17,500 in April, according to Altieri, before stabilizing around $14,000 in June.
Luxury Rolex copy watches isn’t the only maker seeing a correction on the secondary market. Certain Audemars Piguet Royal Oak and Patek Philippe Nautilus models have slipped as much as 20 to 30 percent since April, says the well-known vintage dealer Eric Ku, co-founder of the watch auction website Loupe This.
“There has been a hype in the past years with probably some newcomers buying a watch more for an investment rather than for the watch itself,” luxury goods analyst Jean-Philippe Bertschy, managing director at the Swiss investment management group Vontobel, writes in an email to Robb Report. “I would see a correlation between the recent crypto collapse and the recent price decrease. We also have to be honest and face that the prices were over-exaggerated, paying a fortune for steel watches…”
By no means, however, is any of this cause for panic. “This is a normal little correction we’re going through,” Altieri says. “When you walk into Swiss made Rolex replica watches authorized dealer and they have zero stock, they still have a supply problem and that hasn’t gone away. This is just a little softening—five to 15 percent generally and not across the board. Some of the models that just got overpriced are coming back.”
And there are still plenty of examples of pieces that continue to fetch top dollar. “We just sold one of those new left-handed wholesale super clone Rolex GMT watches,” Ku said in late June. “It went all-in $38,500, including 10 percent buyer’s premium vs. a retail of $11,050.”
In the big picture, analysts familiar with the luxury watch market make clear that the big story is not the current price volatility, but the ongoing polarization of the market, in which a handful of powerful brands continue to grow stronger, often at the expense of everyone else.
“When we’re talking about the Swiss watch industry, we’re talking about a few very strong brands performing very well,” says Bertschy.
“I’m very cautious about assessing sales from companies, but when I look at the units, Patek, Audemars and Rolex replica watches shop site are probably making 50 percent of the units worth more than CHF 3,000 [export value],” he adds. “And for these brands, which are performing very well and you have waiting lists—they will sell their watches. For the others, I’m a bit more cautious.”
In 2022, the simple truth is that it is close to impossible to buy a new Rolex at an authorized dealer. Whether we like it or not, such is life today. To add to the confusion, we have seen a pull-back in best UK Rolex replica watches prices (and in the broader watch market) recently. It seems that the hysteria is quieting down a tad. This begs the question: what is the smart buy in today’s market? Should you pay over retail for a current-gen model? Should you hunt down a last-gen iteration? Or would neo- or true vintage be a better option? Let’s have a look!
Just as a disclaimer up front: the “smart” buy is, of course, always the high quality Rolex fake watches you want most. In the end, that is all that matters. In this article, however, we will look at the financial side of the equation. What is going on with prices and what does it mean for you as a buyer? Price information for this article is sourced from Chrono24. Please take all amounts and percentages as rough indications. We are talking averages and estimations here to paint a general picture. I am only looking at two models for the same reason. I am not aiming to produce a precise financial market report. If that is what you are looking for, stop reading here. With that out the way, let’s get stuck in.
The watch market pull-back
The first quarter of 2022 saw cheap replica Rolex watches prices reach new highs. With authorized dealers reporting zero stock for most models, you would have to resort to the secondhand or gray markets, where prices soared. At its peak, a current-gen black no-date Submariner commanded just over €15,000. If you could find one, that is. That is a premium of more than 75% over its €8,500 RRP. At the time of writing, you can find an unworn example just below €14,000. This equates to a pull-back of about 7%.
The cause of this decline is likely the fact that prices had been inflated by speculation and outside investors. They were lured in by the gold rush caused by greater-than-usual shortages caused by COVID. Whereas earlier, a more gradual long-term growth was caused by a growing community of aficionados and collectors as well as the general public buying Swiss made Rolex copy watches (steadily growing demand) and the limited supply by Rolex, this latest spurt was not quite so sustainable. When pretty much all investment classes took a big hit in May this year (2022), watches, and Rolex in particular, saw a correction too.
With artificial inflation as strong as it was here, the effects of a correction are amplified. Investors will cash out, which puts a lot of watches on the market at once. This then further pulls prices down. You ask why collectors dislike investors? Well, here is your answer.
Rolex prices went down, but so did demand. Both the transaction volume and value went down. Interestingly, the slump was not even across the board. Some watches were hit harder than others. And so, buying Rolex replica watches for sale today is a different game than it was two months ago.
Current versus previous-gen Rolex prices
As a sample, I pulled some figures on the current-gen Submariner ref. 124060 and steel AAA fake Rolex Datejust ref. 126200 watches. Both trade well above their respective RRPs. Both, however, took a dive between 6 and 7% over the past month. That might sound painful. However, compared to July 2021, that is still a growth of 21% for the Sub and 18% for the DJ. Yes, we may have been due a slight correction.
Let’s compare these to the previous, discontinued generation — the Submariner ref. 114060 and Datejust ref. 116200. These took a hit as well. They both saw a loss of about 4% between their peak and current prices. Comparing their current prices to July 2021, however, we still see massive growth. The luxury super clone Rolex Datejust watches went up approximately 20%. The Sub even grew about 24%. And yes, that includes the aforementioned slump.
This means that it was better this year — for your wallet, at least — to own a discontinued-gen Sub or DJ compared to a current-gen model. The growth was stronger and the correction was smaller.
Five-digit reference Rolex prices
Five-digit top Rolex replica watches have seen a particular appreciation lately. Not quite vintage and certainly not modern, these “neo-vintage” models attract plenty of admirers. In the case of our Submariner and Datejust samples, they have recently come back down a bit.
The 14060M Submariner went down by 7%, which still puts it a generous 13% above its typical trading value 12 months ago. The refs. 16200 (sapphire) and earlier 16000 (acrylic) Datejust went down a serious 10% and 13% respectively. This still puts them 6% and 8% above last year’s value.
This makes sense though, as they have been reliably hitting growth around 7% for years on end. The question is, are they back on track now, or are we going to see further declines?
Four-digit reference Rolex prices
Speculators do not care as much for vintage, or so it seems. The average price of the wholesale fake Rolex Submariner ref. 5513 watches recently declined by only 3%. This puts its growth for the past year at a substantial 10%. You will see a much greater variance in the graph, which is due to the more homogenous nature of modern Subs. Vintage models come in more varieties, and condition comes into play more profoundly. This leads to wider price ranges.
The four-digit China replica Rolex Datejust ref. 1600 watches performs similarly. A 4% correction puts it at +11% compared to a year ago. As with the five-digit references, these numbers are much closer to the typical yearly growth we have been seeing long-term.
Which is the smart buy?
I am no investor and certainly no investment advisor. And since you are here on Fratello rather than the Financial Times, I am assuming you are here for the love of Swiss movements Rolex replica watches too. It is, however, pleasant to know our money is not evaporating. For me, at least, watches are a substantial expense. It is comforting to know that some of them hold their value or actually gain a bit. I might not ever sell, but it is good to know that I could if I need to.
In that respect, in my eyes, the vintage stuff is a bit more transparent as a market. I get a sense — which is, admittedly, thinly backed by facts — that the growth here is caused by us. And by “us”, I mean aficionados and collectors like you and me. Seeing those four-digit references grow year over year by very similar percentages is reassuring. If a watch (Submariner ref. 124060) appreciates by 22% in just over a month, that does not seem healthy to me. It does not make me want to pull out my wallet and give it a go.
The last-gen models seem like a safer bet as well. They will likely suffer a dampened blow compared to current-gen models if best quality Rolex fake watches manages to get stock into boutiques again. You are getting very similar watches at substantially lower prices. As it seems today, there is a little less risk involved.
Rolex prices going forward
It is hard to predict where Rolex prices will go next. Are we back on track for the “normal” year-over-year value development? Is the hype-fueled inflation corrected after the recent slump already? Or do we still have some ways to go? Do we need a little more of a correction before the market stabilizes?
In any case, the situation is frustrating. It has little to do with the love of watches. We can appreciate replica Rolex watches paypal for its amazing products, but as collectors, we have not felt very welcome lately. One thing is for sure: the shortages will remain for a while to come. That means that prices will hit a support level at some point. However, anyone who claims to know when is lying.
What do you think? Where are Rolex prices headed, and which are the responsible buys in today’s market, in your eyes? Or are you fed up and no longer interested in The Crown altogether?
Luxury menswear e-tailer, Mr Porter is getting in on the vintage watch market and, quite frankly, we are surprised it hasn’t happened sooner. Global management consulting firm, McKinsey & Co. says sales of pre-owned AAA UK Rolex replica watches reached $19 billion in 2019 and are forecasted to grow to more than $30 billion by 2025.
Pre-owned, of course, includes newer timepieces. For a breakdown, vintage is generally accepted to mean high quality Rolex fake watches created before the 1970s (the era when the quartz crisis hit), neo-vintage often refers to pieces created from the 90s to early or mid-2000s, but pre-owned can also include any piece that has, as the name suggests, already been owned at least once even if it was fresh-to-market in 2022. Nevertheless, those figures suggest clients are clamoring for rarity or, at least, pieces they can’t find at retail as demand continues to eclipse supply. Mr Porter has already been dealing in the pre-owned market, so the vintage and neo-vintage timepieces offer something “new” for clients looking for rarer historical pieces.
To get in on the frenzy, Mr Porter enlisted Eric Wind of Wind Vintage to help curate the initial offering, which will, at debut, only be available for the US market with a plan to expand globally throughout the rest of the year. Wind is a notable dealer in the US, who honed his expertise while he was a senior watch specialist at Christie’s, and has a roster of high-profile clients who seek out his vault of rare perfect super clone Rolex watches, as well as his knowledge to help refine their collections.
Highlights from Mr Porter and Wind Vintage’s new lineup include best replica Rolex “Pepsi” GMT-Master Ref. 16750 and Submariner Ref. 5513 “Meters First” watches, named for its water-resistance dial stamp which reads “Meters First” rather than “Feet First,” which became the standard from 1969. Both of these coveted Rollie references, however, have already sold.
“For me, it was just about finding a mix of cool watches,” Wind told Robb Report. “You always want to have Swiss movements fake Rolex Datejust watches, a Speedmaster and other cornerstone staples that are very reliable for someone to dip their toe into vintage.” He added that his demarcation for vintage is 20 years or older.
In total, there are just 12 watches available for purchase at the outstart of Mr Porter’s new venture and they range in price from $1,900 to $19,800. In terms of Rolex copy watches for sale still up for grabs at the time of publication, Wind says he thinks the steel 36 mm top Swiss Rolex Datejust replica watches might fly fast because it is new old stock from 1997. It also comes outfitted with an attractive white tapestry dial.
